Season In-Depth
Atlantic Division · 2026-27 regular season
Only 2 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
61%
Playoff odds
168
Points pace
1st in the Atlantic, 2nd in the Eastern. Holding a playoff spot (1st in the Atlantic), 2 points ahead of NYI. Pace = points per game over 84 games. Odds: an estimate from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected 97 points). Playoff race
How they play, from where they rank in the league. How the labels work
Based on 2 games so far, so it will change a lot early in the season.
Run-and-gun
with a streak of goalie carrying them
Chances galore at both ends. Their games are fun to watch and rarely tidy.
Labels they fit, strongest first
Points banked vs points their chances deserved, game by game. How it works
4 points · deserved 2.7
7th luckiest of 32 teams
The verdict appears after 10 games (2 played so far): before that, a couple of bounces would decide it.
2026-27 · league rank · arrows compare the last 10 games with the season
Expected goals share (xGF%)
52.3%
16th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 expected goals, which weights every shot by its chance of going in. The best single measure of who's controlling play.
Shot share (CF%)
47.2%
20th/ 32Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, including blocked and missed. Over 50% means you have the puck more.
High-danger chance share
50.0%
17th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 chances from the area right in front of the net, plus rebounds from the slot.
PDO (luck gauge)
109.2
3rd/ 325v5 Sh% 14.6 · Sv% 94.6
5-on-5 shooting % plus save %. Around 100 is normal; well above usually means hot shooting or goaltending that won't last.
Goaltending: goals saved above expected
+2.5
8th/ 32Goals the team's goalies stopped beyond what an average goalie would, given the shots they faced. Above zero is good.
Goals for per game
3.50
10th/ 32Average goals scored per game, all situations.
Goals against per game
1.50
3rd/ 32Average goals allowed per game. Lower is better.
Shots for per game
26.50
18th/ 32Shots on goal per game.
Shots against per game
24.00
10th/ 32Shots on goal allowed per game. Lower is better.
Power play
0.0%
23rd/ 32Share of power plays that produce a goal.
Penalty kill
87.5%
13th/ 32Share of opponent power plays killed without a goal.
Faceoffs
52.8%
11th/ 32Share of faceoffs won.
Save percentage
.938
5th/ 32Share of shots on goal the team's goalies stopped, all situations. Empty-net goals don't count against it.
5-on-5 shooting %
14.6%
5th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal that go in. League average is around 8%; well above or below usually evens out.
5-on-5 save %
94.6%
8th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal the goalies stop. League average is around 92%.
Last 10 games, oldest first
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, 2026-27 · above 50% = controlling play
The trend line appears after three games.
Wins-losses-OT/SO losses · point % · league rank by point %
| Scoring first | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 28 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allowing the first goal | 0-0-0 | — |
| Leading after the 1st | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 1st | 0-0-0 | — | |
| Trailing after the 1st | 0-0-0 | — |
| Leading after the 2nd | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 2nd | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 12 |
| Trailing after the 2nd | 0-0-0 | — |
| One-goal games | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 0-0-0 | — | |
| On the road | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 27 |
One-goal games: decided by one goal (shootouts included), or by two with an empty-net goal.
Comeback wins
0
Biggest comeback
1 goals
Won trailing after 2
0
Blown 2-goal leads
0
Lost leading after 2
0
Wins after trailing by 2+
None yet.
Losses after leading by 2+ (incl. OT and shootouts)
None yet.
Shootout goals not included
| Period | For | Against | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| 2nd | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| 3rd | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| OT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
League rank in brackets. Hits, blocks, giveaways and takeaways are counted by arena scorekeepers and ranked by volume, not as good or bad.
| Power plays | 4.00 | 6th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Power-play time | 5:22 | 19th/ 32 |
| Power-play goals for | 0.00 | 23rd/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals against | 0.00 | 1st/ 32 |
| Times shorthanded | 4.00 | 23rd/ 32 |
| Power-play goals against | 0.50 | 14th/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals for | 0.50 | 4th/ 32 |
| Penalties drawn minus taken | 0.0 | 11th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Hits | 30.50 | 3rd most |
| Blocked shots | 15.00 | 11th most |
| Giveaways | 14.50 | 26th most |
| Takeaways | 2.50 | 28th most |
Share of their expected goals (and goals) by shot type and strength, against the league average. 7 goals from 7.1 expected, empty-net shots left out.
Shot type
Senators: 48.5% of expected goals and 28.6% of goals; league average 36.2% of expected goals.
Senators: 26.4% of expected goals and 57.1% of goals; league average 34.2% of expected goals.
Senators: 6.7% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 7.3% of expected goals.
Senators: 5.4% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 12.0% of expected goals.
Senators: 12.2% of expected goals and 14.3% of goals; league average 9.0% of expected goals.
Senators: 0.8% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 1.2% of expected goals.
Strength
Senators: 64.5% of expected goals and 85.7% of goals; league average 71.6% of expected goals.
Senators: 26.3% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 22.7% of expected goals.
Senators: 5.0% of expected goals and 14.3% of goals; league average 2.6% of expected goals.
Senators: 4.2% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 3.1% of expected goals.
Rebound: a shot within 3 seconds of a teammate's shot on goal. There's no “off the rush” split: the NHL's play-by-play doesn't record rushes or breakaways, so we can't count them reliably.
Shaded areas are where the Senators create or allow more dangerous chances than an average NHL team, 2026-27. Darker = further above average; blank = average or below. Net at the top.
Goals plus first assists: who drives the scoring, rather than collecting second assists. Why primary points
| # | Player | GP | P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim StützleC2 G, 2 first assists | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Michael AmadioR2 G, 1 first assist | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Thomas ChabotD1 G, 0 first assists | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Drake BathersonR1 G, 0 first assists | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Stephen HallidayC1 G, 0 first assists | 2 | 1 |
2026-27 · top 10 by individual expected goals (ixG), all situations
| # | Player | GP | G | P | SOG | ixG | HD | G−ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William EklundL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2.3 | 8 | -2.3 |
| 2 | Shane PintoC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
| 3 | Michael AmadioR | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 2 | +1.3 |
| 4 | Tim StützleC | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 1 | +1.3 |
| 5 | Stephen HallidayC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 6 | Drake BathersonR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Dylan CozensC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Claude GirouxR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.2 | 2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Thomas ChabotD | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.2 | 1 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Hayden HodgsonR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.2 |
2026-27 · everyone on the roster
Senators
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | 2 | .949 | +2.8 |
| Samuel Ersson | 1 | .889 | -0.3 |
| Jonas Johansson | 0 | — | — |
A start is the game where he faced the first shot. Quality and really bad starts are shares of his starts, so a busy starter isn't punished for starting more. Quality starts, really bad starts and stolen games explained
| Goalie | GS | QS | QS% | RBS | RBS% | Stolen | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark2 starts · 100% quality · 0% really bad (0) | 2 | 2 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | .867 |
| Samuel ErssonNo starts yet | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | — | 0 | — |
Wins where the goalie saved 2 or more goals above expected, and at least the winning margin: without him, they probably lose
None yet this season.