57%
Playoff odds
112
Points pace
Holding a playoff spot (2nd in the Atlantic), 2 points ahead of NYI. The magic number appears at the season's midpoint.
Odds and magic number are estimates. Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season; this early they move a lot from game to game. Playoff race
Next game
@ Minnesota Wild
Thursday, October 8 · 7:00 p.m. ET
Playoff odds after Thursday's gameWin → 61%OT loss → 57%Loss → 54%
First of 2 meetings
2026-27 · shares are 5-on-5 · pace = 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 by both teams, 1st = fastest · speed bursts = times any player tops 20 mph, per game (NHL EDGE, ranked per game by us)
Expected goals share
Shot share
High-danger chance share
Goals for per game
Goals against per game
Power play
Penalty kill
Pace of play
Speed bursts per game
Offensive-zone time
Longer bar = better league rank, so every row reads the same way (for goals against, fewer is better).
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, over each club's last 10 (the same line as the season trend) · above 50% = controlling play
Shaded areas are where each team creates or allows more dangerous chances than an average NHL team, 2026-27. Darker = further above average; blank = average or below. Net at the top.
2026-27 numbers for every goalie on both rosters. Starters aren't announced until game day.
Lightning
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 3 | .898 | +0.8 |
| Dennis Hildeby | 0 | — | — |
Lightning
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | 2 | .957 | +2.7 |
| Calvin Pickard | 0 | — | — |
Mon, Oct 5 · @ Lightning
1–4L
Lightning beat the Flyers 4–1 and earned it, out-chancing them 5.4–1.9 in expected goals and 16–4 in high-danger chances.
Top Lightning ratings
Last 10 games, oldest first
Oct 1 · @ NYR
1–5L
xG 2.9–4.0
Shot share 52%
Oct 3 · vs WSH
3–1W
xG 4.7–2.3
Shot share 53%
Oct 5 · vs PHI
4–1W
xG 5.4–1.9
Shot share 70%
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, 2026-27 · above 50% = controlling play
Best single-game ratings out of 10 · Game Score in brackets · How ratings work
Jake Guentzel (2.56)
1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG
Nikita Kucherov (2.48)
2 A · 1 SOG
Brandon Hagel (2.46)
2 A · 6 SOG
Brandon Hagel (2.10)
1 G · 8 SOG
Pontus Holmberg (1.90)
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG
2026-27 · league rank · arrows compare the last 10 games with the season
Only 3 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
Expected goals share (xGF%)
62.7%
3rd/ 32Share of 5-on-5 expected goals, which weights every shot by its chance of going in. The best single measure of who's controlling play.
Shot share (CF%)
58.4%
5th/ 32Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, including blocked and missed. Over 50% means you have the puck more.
High-danger chance share
71.1%
1st/ 32Share of 5-on-5 chances from the area right in front of the net, plus rebounds from the slot.
PDO (luck gauge)
97.2
22nd/ 325v5 Sh% 8.8 · Sv% 88.4
Luck4 pts · deserved 4.45-on-5 shooting % plus save %. Around 100 is normal; well above usually means hot shooting or goaltending that won't last.
Goaltending: goals saved above expected
+0.8
16th/ 32Goals the team's goalies stopped beyond what an average goalie would, given the shots they faced. Above zero is good.
Goals for per game
2.67
20th/ 32Average goals scored per game, all situations.
Goals against per game
2.33
9th/ 32Average goals allowed per game. Lower is better.
Shots for per game
30.33
9th/ 32Shots on goal per game.
Shots against per game
20.00
3rd/ 32Shots on goal allowed per game. Lower is better.
Power play
0.0%
23rd/ 32Share of power plays that produce a goal.
Penalty kill
85.7%
14th/ 32Share of opponent power plays killed without a goal.
Faceoffs
48.2%
22nd/ 32Share of faceoffs won.
Save percentage
.898
17th/ 32Share of shots on goal the team's goalies stopped, all situations. Empty-net goals don't count against it.
Based on 3 games so far
Puck hogs
They have the puck far more than their opponents do, and outshoot almost everyone.
2026-27
2026-27 · goals · shots on goal
2026-27 · assists · points
2026-27 · average rating out of 10, skaters with 2+ games · What's this?
2026-27 · individual xG · goals · high-danger chances
2026-27 · save % · goals saved above expected
2026-27 · late tying and go-ahead goals, OT winners · What's this?
1 insurance goal · 41st in the NHL
1 clutch assist · 46th in the NHL
2026-27 shooting % against each player's NHL career · goals above or below his career rate · What's this?
Running hot
25.0% this season · 7.5% career
33.3% this season · 11.5% career
25.0% this season · 12.9% career
Due
5.9% this season · 15.7% career
0.0% this season · 14.6% career
10.0% this season · 15.9% career
Only 3 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
Every Lightning shooter, with career chartsActive runs, regular season: point streaks of 3+ games and goal streaks of 2+; droughts among players with 10+ games.
On a roll
Droughts
Puck and player tracking, this season · league rank · tap a tile marked “See every player” for the whole roster
Speed bursts over 22 mph, per game
0.7
19th/ 32Distance skated
130.8 mi
18th/ 32League avg 122.4 mi
Shots over 90 mph
3
2nd/ 32Offensive-zone time
45.1%
4th/ 32League avg 40.9%
Defensive-zone time
37.0%
5th/ 32Lower is better; rank 1 = least time defending