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Final

FLA at TBL game report

Panthers
5–3
Lightning

Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 7:00 p.m. ET · Benchmark International Arena

Panthers beat the Lightning 5–3 despite being out-chanced 3.4–2.7 in expected goals and 11–7 in high-danger chances. Finishing made the difference.

Team comparison

TBLFLA
  • 3Goals5
  • 3.39Expected goals2.71
  • 1.755-on-5 expected goals1.48
  • 11High-danger chances7
  • 28Shots on goal25
  • 65Shot attempts40
  • 445-on-5 shot attempts34
  • 6:30Power-play time2:00

5-on-5 shares for TBL: 56.4% of shot attempts, 54.1% of expected goals.

Expected goals through the game

LightningPanthersCircles mark goals

Each step is a shot; the bigger the step, the better the chance. A goal on a small step was a low-percentage finish.

Shot map

Panthers shooting ←→ Lightning shootingBigger dot = better chance · filled = goal · blocked shots not shown
Mikulas Hovorka: shot on goal, 0.00 xG (P3 5:11)Nathan Bastian: shot on goal, 0.00 xG (P3 2:01)Donovan Sebrango: shot on goal, 0.00 xG (P3 11:56)Donovan Sebrango: missed, 0.00 xG (P2 7:55)Alexander Petrovic: shot on goal, 0.01 xG (P1 0:32)John Carlson: shot on goal, 0.01 xG (P1 19:54)Erik Cernak: missed, 0.01 xG (P1 9:39)Mikulas Hovorka: shot on goal, 0.01 xG (P2 4:16)Marek Alscher: shot on goal, 0.01 xG (P2 7:19)Matvei Shuravin: missed, 0.01 xG (P2 4:14)Ryan McDonagh: shot on goal, 0.01 xG (P1 3:29)Jansen Harkins: missed, 0.01 xG (P2 18:17)Jansen Harkins: missed, 0.02 xG (P1 16:23)Ryan McDonagh: missed, 0.02 xG (P3 3:11)Victor Hedman: missed, 0.02 xG (P2 10:28)Ryan McDonagh: shot on goal, 0.02 xG (P3 5:25)Marek Alscher: shot on goal, 0.02 xG (P2 7:50)Uvis Balinskis: missed, 0.02 xG (P1 18:37)Uvis Balinskis: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P2 5:51)Matvei Shuravin: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P1 16:58)Nikita Kucherov: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P3 15:27)Erik Cernak: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P1 16:40)John Carlson: missed, 0.03 xG (P1 4:56)Victor Hedman: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P2 18:00)Conor Geekie: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P3 5:06)Brandon Hagel: shot on goal, 0.03 xG (P2 16:24)Victor Hedman: missed, 0.03 xG (P2 14:32)Nikita Kucherov: shot on goal, 0.04 xG (P1 19:59)Anthony Cirelli: shot on goal, 0.04 xG (P2 19:18)Donovan Sebrango: shot on goal, 0.04 xG (P3 9:43)Brandon Hagel: missed, 0.04 xG, high danger (P3 15:13)Nikita Kucherov: shot on goal, 0.04 xG (P1 12:39)Jansen Harkins: shot on goal, 0.05 xG, high danger (P3 9:17)Victor Hedman: missed, 0.05 xG (P2 17:56)Angus Crookshank: shot on goal, 0.05 xG (P2 13:35)Jake Guentzel: missed, 0.05 xG (P3 18:33)Sam Lafferty: missed, 0.05 xG (P1 19:26)Marek Alscher: shot on goal, 0.05 xG (P3 11:27)Jake Guentzel: shot on goal, 0.05 xG (P2 6:18)Brandon Hagel: shot on goal, 0.05 xG (P2 19:33)John Carlson: shot on goal, 0.06 xG (P3 15:43)Conor Geekie: shot on goal, 0.06 xG (P2 17:42)Sandis Vilmanis: shot on goal, 0.06 xG, high danger (P2 4:51)Jake Guentzel: shot on goal, 0.06 xG (P3 14:21)Alexander Petrovic: shot on goal, 0.06 xG (P3 1:28)John Beecher: shot on goal, 0.06 xG, high danger (P3 13:13)Matvei Shuravin: missed, 0.06 xG (P3 0:39)Brandon Hagel: shot on goal, 0.07 xG, high danger (P3 10:25)Jake Guentzel: shot on goal, 0.07 xG (P3 15:11)Brayden Point: missed, 0.07 xG, high danger (P3 15:49)Marek Alscher: missed, 0.07 xG (P3 9:38)Erik Cernak: missed, 0.07 xG (P3 3:23)Jake Guentzel: missed, 0.08 xG (P2 15:28)John Carlson: shot on goal, 0.08 xG (P2 15:18)Kai Schwindt: goal, 0.09 xG (P2 2:29)Erik Cernak: missed, 0.09 xG (P3 3:17)Nathan Bastian: shot on goal, 0.09 xG (P1 2:45)Angus Crookshank: shot on goal, 0.09 xG, high danger (P2 7:30)Jake Guentzel: shot on goal, 0.10 xG (P3 15:32)John Carlson: missed, 0.10 xG (P2 15:02)Brandon Hagel: missed, 0.10 xG, high danger (P3 18:32)Cole Reinhardt: shot on goal, 0.10 xG (P3 0:48)John Carlson: shot on goal, 0.10 xG (P2 15:40)Hunter St. Martin: goal, 0.11 xG, high danger (P3 4:21)Jansen Harkins: shot on goal, 0.12 xG, high danger (P3 5:27)Sandis Vilmanis: shot on goal, 0.12 xG (P2 4:51)John Carlson: missed, 0.12 xG (P2 16:05)Jansen Harkins: goal, 0.12 xG (P2 3:14)Bokondji Imama: goal, 0.14 xG, high danger (P1 19:44)Jake Guentzel: missed, 0.15 xG, high danger (P1 1:22)Cole Reinhardt: goal, 0.17 xG (P3 5:35)Sam Lafferty: shot on goal, 0.21 xG, high danger (P2 0:55)Jansen Harkins: goal, 0.23 xG, high danger (P3 5:29)Conor Geekie: goal, 0.23 xG, high danger (P2 13:09)Cole Schwindt: missed, 0.24 xG, high danger (P1 17:02)Brayden Point: shot on goal, 0.26 xG, high danger (P3 18:59)Brayden Point: shot on goal, 0.34 xG, high danger (P2 14:52)Sandis Vilmanis: goal, 0.71 xG (P3 19:36)

By strength

Time, shot attempts, expected goals and goals by strength, from TBL's point of view
TBL at…TimeAttemptsxGGoals
5 on 547:3644–341.75–1.483–4
Power play6:3012–31.04–0.220–0
Shorthanded2:000–20.00–0.300–0
Other (4 on 4, 3 on 3, empty net)3:549–10.60–0.710–1

Read pairs as TBL–FLA. “Power play” means TBL had the extra skater.

Goaltending

Goalie results with expected goals against
GoalieSavesSV%xGAGSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy TBL20/24.8332.00-2.00
Cooper Black FLA14/16.8751.88-0.12
Kirill Gerasimyuk FLA11/12.9171.50+0.50

GSAx above zero means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have, given the shots faced.

Most dangerous shooters

Players ranked by individual expected goals
PlayerGSOGAttHDixG
Sandis Vilmanis FLA13310.89
Brayden Point TBL02330.66
Jansen Harkins TBL24730.54
Jake Guentzel TBL04710.54
John Carlson TBL04900.50
Conor Geekie TBL13510.32
Brandon Hagel TBL03530.29
Cole Reinhardt FLA12200.28
Sam Lafferty FLA01210.26
Cole Schwindt FLA00110.24

Three stars

  1. ★C. ReinhardtFLA · 1G 1A
  2. ★★J. HarkinsTBL · 2G 0A
  3. ★★★C. GeekieTBL · 1G 0A

Scoring

Period 1

  • 19:44FLA B. Imama (from D. Sebrango, S. Lafferty)1–0

Period 2

  • 02:29FLA K. Schwindt (from C. Reinhardt, M. Hovorka)2–0
  • 03:14TBL J. Harkins (from I. Mikheyev, J. Moser)2–1
  • 13:09TBL C. Geekie (from S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen)2–2

Period 3

  • 04:21FLA H. St. Martin (from A. Petrovic, K. Schwindt)3–2
  • 05:29TBL J. Harkins (from R. McDonagh, J. Pelletier)3–3
  • 05:35FLA C. Reinhardt4–3
  • 19:36FLA S. Vilmanis (from U. Balinskis)5–3